An outlook on the Thai economy in 2022, will it grow or become vulnerable?

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After the disclosure of the 2022 budget bill, amounting up to 3.1 trillion baht, to the council for consideration by August 2021, there are significant points to be observed regarding the economy as follows.

A budget of 338,547.6 million baht will be spent towards strategies to build competitiveness to increase economic competitiveness to achieve a stable growth. The focus will be on agricultural development such as smart agriculture, biological agriculture and the development of agricultural industry, tourism, logistics, smart cities, promoting technology and a special economic zone, industrial estates, including modern research innovation, among others. It is clear that the development trend is focusing on technological development to truly upgrade to Industry 4.0. This is consistent with the national strategy and national reform plan.

From the mentioned strategies, the results are expected to be seen more concretely, after the successful suppression of the spread of Covid-19 and the increasing number of vaccinated population in the country, especially in industrial parks, tourism, and logistics from the expanding tendency of domestic demands for consumer products that are necessary for daily life. The construction industry will also return to its livelihood after the disruption because of the government’s lockdown measures.

The Monetary Policy Committee forecasts that the Thai economy in 2022 is likely to grow by 3.3 percent, under economic vulnerable conditions, especially in the service sector and self-employment. However, with the support from the Emergency Decree on Loans and the 2022 budget, it is expected that this will support a better spending trend. The country’s domestic inflation rate remains constant within the target frame, which is different from the inflation rate in the USA where it is likely to increase after seeing a possibility that the Federal Reserve may cut QE and raise interest rates in the near future.