Thailand’s Economy in the First-Half 2019
%YoY |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|||||
FY |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
FY |
|
GDP |
4.0 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
3.3-3.8 |
Total Investment1/
Private Consumption |
1.8 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
4.5 |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Note: 1/Total Investment refers to initial accumulated fixed capital 2/Bank of Thailand’s database on balance of payments
Source: Adapted from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the Office of the National Economics and Social Development Council https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8882
The overall economy of Thailand in the first-half 2019 indicates a slow economic growth since Thailand has been continuously facing various internal and external fluctuations. The Office of the National Economics and Social Development Council (NESDC) revealed estimated growth rate of Thailand’s economy by taking into account the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is found that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2019 was at 2.8%, which is lower than the estimated GDP growth rate for the whole fiscal year 2019 at 3.3-3.8%. It is also lower than the GDP growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2018, which was 3.6%. This shows a continuous slowdown of Thailand’s economy from the end of 2018 onwards.
Analysis of Thailand’s economy in the first-half 2019
First Quarter of 2019
1) GDP Growth Rate
GDP Growth (%)
|
2017 |
2018 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
||||||
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
|||
GDP |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
Seasonally Adjusted GDP |
- |
- |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
-0.4 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
Source: https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
The growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2019 was 2.8%.
This means that Thailand’s economy is still growing, even at a low
rate. It is lower than a quarterly GDP growth rate of a previous year,
which was 5.0%. While considering the GDP growth trend in the previous
whole year (2018), it can be seen that GDP growth rate in the second
quarter of 2018 decreased continuously until the first quarter of 2019.
This is mainly caused by a drastic decrease in product and service
export volume, a global economic slowdown, an unsettled trade war
between China and the US, and surging Thai Baht. As a result, foreign
consumer demands for Thai products and services have been decreasing.
However, there are other economic factors supporting GDP growth rate
in the first quarter as well, including expansions of private
consumption, private investment, government spending, and government
investment. Hence, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2019 has
been slightly increasing.
Summary on economic factors affecting GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2019
Economic Factors |
Increase /Decrease |
GDP Growth |
1) Private Consumption |
Increase |
Increase |
2) Private Investment |
Increase |
Increase |
|
Increase |
Increase |
|
Increase |
Increase |
3) Government Spending / Government Investment |
Increase / Decrease |
Increase |
4) Export |
Decrease |
Decrease |
2) Private Consumption

Source : https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
Private consumption growth rate is as high as 4.6%, compared with 5.4% of the previous quarter. This is due to an increase in employment rate and income base caused by governmental short-term economic stimulation measures assisting low-income people. Other significant causes include a low inflation rate and an increase in consumer confidence. As can be seen, the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 67.4 in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 68.1.3) Private Investment

Source : https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
Application for Investment Promotion from the BOI
BOI Investment Promotion |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
||||
FY |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
|
Volume of Application for Investment Promotion (Billion Thai Baht) |
631.0 |
899.7 |
200.7 |
79.0 |
92.0 |
528.0 |
128.9 |
Volume of Approved Application (Billion Thai Baht) |
631.1 |
549.5 |
76.1 |
120.2 |
270.2 |
83.0 |
134.6 |
%YoY |
-26.7 |
-12.9 |
-68.3 |
17.1 |
18.9 |
36.5 |
76.7 |
EEC Zone (Billion Thai Baht) |
312.6 |
343.4 |
38.4 |
65.0 |
207.2 |
32.9 |
94.0 |
%YoY |
|
9.0 |
-79.3 |
35.2 |
218.8 |
125.5 |
145.0 |
Source : https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
|
No. of Projects |
Investment Value |
||||
Jan-Mar |
Jan-Mar |
% |
Jan-Mar |
Jan-Mar |
% |
|
FDI |
209 |
250 |
+20 |
52,856 |
74,951 |
+42 |
Approved |
329 |
411 |
+25 |
76,135 |
134,573 |
+77 |
*Note: 1. Projects with shares held by foreign investors freely floated in stock exchange are not included.
2. The BOI has revised their 2017-to-present database by taking all
projects applied for performance improvement into account.
Source : https://www.boi.go.th/upload/content/StatisticsreportQ1_5cda3512d3e2b.pdf
The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) indicates that 245 projects,
valued 84 Billion Thai Baht (253% higher), have applied for BOI
investment promotion from January to March 2019. This amount is regarded
as 65% of all investments that applied for this promotion (12.89
Trillion Thai Baht). Among all these, applications from 250 projects,
with a total investment value of 75 Billion Thai Baht, have been
granted approval from the BOI. The sources with highest investment are
China, Japan, and Hong Kong respectively. Major targets include digital
industry, medical hub industry, petrochemical industry and chemical
supplies, and machinery automation and robotics.
In the first quarter of 2019, foreign direct investment (FDI) ratio
in Thailand is more than half of the total value of application for
investment promotion from the BOI. FDI therefore is significant to the
growth of Thailand’s economy. Besides being inflows that compensate
lower proceeds from export, FDI also leads to higher employment rate,
technological transfers, and development of important basic
infrastructures in Thailand.
4) Government Spending and Government Investment (+,-)
Government spending grows gradually at 3.3%, compared
with 1.4% in the previous quarter, from product and service
procurement, as well as wage and payroll settlement. Meanwhile, the government investment is slightly lower at 0.1%. This is mainly caused by lower public enterprise investment.
5) Export (-)
Export volume in US Dollars is drastically decreasing to 3.6%. This is the first cut-down in 11 quarters so far.
This volume grew at 2.2% in the previous quarter. The major reason of
lower export volume of goods is economic slowdown in our trade partner
countries.
In terms of economic stability, Thailand is still in
good place with low inflation rate (0.7% in the first quarter of
2019), low unemployment rate, and a balance of payment surplus.
Second Quarter of 2019
Revealed data on Thailand’s economy in the second quarter of 2019 from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) indicates that Thailand’s economic growth rate slows down due to lower demands from other countries,
lower export volume, and less number of tourists, especially from
China. In the meantime, domestic demand is decreasing as well. Private
consumption and government investment are still able to grow, while
private investment and government spending are decreasing. In terms of
economic stability, inflation rate has been adjusted according to
prices of agricultural goods affected by hot weather. Unemployment rate
is low and stable since the previous quarter. And there is a surplus
in the country’s balance of payments.
Lower adjusted economic growth rate of Thailand in 2019
|
Actual Data |
2019 Forecast |
||
2017 |
2018 |
As of |
As of |
|
GDP Growth (%) |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.5 – 4.5 |
3.3- 3.8 |
Private Consumption |
3.0 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
Government Spending |
0.1 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
Private Investment |
2.9 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
Government Investment |
-1.2 |
3.3 |
6.2 |
4.5 |
Export Volume (in form of US Dollars, %) |
9.8 |
7.2 |
4.1 |
2.2 |
Inflation Rate (%) |
0.7 |
1.1 |
0.5 – 1.5 |
0.7 – 1.2 |
Balance of Payment (% GDP) |
11.0 |
6.9 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
Source: NESDC |
Source : https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
Although Thailand’s economy is still stable, the NESDC’s 2019
forecast on economic growth rate suggests that the GDP growth is
continuously adjusted lower in accordance with other significant
economic indicators. These include a drastic decrease in export volume, global economic and political fluctuations, the US-China trade war, and the surging Thai Baht. It is also expected that private consumption and government spending will grow the same as those of the previous year, and that private investment and government investment will grow gradually.
Recently, various sectors have continually adjusted the forecast of
GDP growth rate lower. In July 2019, the World Bank adjusted Thailand’s
GDP growth rate down from 3.8% to 3.5%. Therefore, this is another
challenge in the second-half 2019 that Thailand has to boost its
economic growth in order to increase its whole-year GDP growth rate as
expected.
Trend in the second-half 2019
Although Thailand’s economy in the first-half 2019 slowed down from
various factors such as global economic fluctuation and an ongoing
trade war between China and the US, it is expected that Thailand’s
economy in the second-half 2019 will improve and grow as forecasted.
The positive prospects include private investment, especially the
Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development plan; the development of
transportation and logistics systems, and benefits resulted from trade
barriers between China and the US that will be favourable for
Thailand’s export of some product types. Also, the relocation of
manufacturing bases into Thailand will bring about higher capital
inflows, productivity, employment, and private consumption in order to
boost Thailand’s economic growth.
Sources of Information :
https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8886
https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8882
https://www.nesdb.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=8884
https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/PressRelease2557/PressThai_June2019_23NS9PO.pdf
https://www.boi.go.th/upload/content/StatisticsreportQ1_5cda3512d3e2b.pdf
https://www.matichon.co.th/news-monitor/news_1559126